You don't know what you've got 'til it's gone.

Maybe this would have seemed more prescient if I'd posted it before Trump's inaugration, but I assumed it would be obvious to everyone.

I am currently trying to avoid the news, but I still check Slashdot from time to time, so I'm aware that the US will be exiting the Paris climate agreement and the World Health Organisation. I would not be surprised to see them exiting the United Nations and NATO.

This is, of course, an immense tragedy for all of us. Here is a metaphor, which has been rattling around my head for a while.

Imagine a school, which has been decorated over the years with the best work of the children who passed through its doors. What we are now seeing, and will continue to see, is a group of the stupidest children rampaging through the school, smashing it all up. All of the nice displays, all of the artwork on the walls. At the end of this, the school will be a wreck, and the stupid children will have achieved nothing. But they will have made many of the other children and teachers cry and, for some of them at least, that was the whole point of the exercise.

It is hard to be optimistic about the future.

On the climate front, it is possible that individual US states (looking at you, California) will step up and show some actual leadership. Maybe other countries, realising that the US can no longer be trusted, will work to shore up the organisations that Trump is abandoning. I'd like to think that the UK might play a constructive role a post-America world, though I suspect craven cowardice will be the order of the day (if I see Starmer trying to kowtow to Trump, I'll be resigning my membership of the Labour party).

But there is no getting away from the fact that the next few years are going to be pretty awful. And I don't think we can look to the next American election to save us. For one thing, the damage caused by this administration will take mere days to inflict, but many years to repair (some of it may be impossible to repair, of course).

For another thing, the Republican party now has complete control of the machinery of American democracy. If an election happens in 2028 at all (I think this is doubtful), Trump will have absolutely no problem with rigging it to ensure he is victorious. After all, that's what his hero Putin does. You might say "but the constitution says..." and you would be right, maybe the constitution does say that, but what makes you think that might count for anything?

I hope I'm wrong.

Home